Fri, March 5, 2021 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM See description. Speaker: Rebecca Asch, Assistant Professor of Fisheries Biology, East Carolina University (ECU).
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are among the most common tools to project how fishes and fisheries respond to climate change. However, as empirically-derived, statistical models, many ENMs do not incorporate much information on species biology, such as fluctuations in habitat use across life history stages, density-dependent changes in habitat use, or trade-offs between behavioral modes through which fishes may respond to climate change. This seminar will present case studies from the California Current and Caribbean large marine ecosystems that address these issues. In the first case study, I examine whether Nassau Grouper (Epinephelus striatus), an endangered Caribbean reef fish, exhibits similar climate sensitivity across life history stages. Models which did not consider life history overestimated habitat suitability when conditions were poor, while underestimating suitability in areas with abundant habitat. Both of these outcomes could lead to errors in conservation decision-making. Expanding this research to a suite of eight grouper and snapper species, my students and I find that responses of reef fishes to climate change may be modulated by spawning seasonality. Groupers predominantly spawn during winter months, while snappers spawn in spring and summer. Due to their affinity for colder spawning temperatures, groupers react to climate change by shifting their distribution poleward, while simultaneously experiencing declines in integrated habitat suitability (IHS).