With carbon emissions in the American transportation sector set to overtake power plants for the first time in four decades, greater fuel economy regulations may be key to keeping CO2 reductions in pace with rising transportation demands on both sides of the border.
According to John DeCicco, research professor at the University of Michigan Energy Institute, transportation-related emissions in the states outpaced the power sector for seven of the last eight months. This is largely due to an uptake in motor-vehicle transport following the 2012 economic recovery combined with new investments in wind and solar as well as a decline in coal power plants.
“Recent trends . . . show that we've now entered a period where the transportation will be the nation's largest source of CO2 emissions,” DeCicco writes.
Although technology like electric cars has yet to enjoy wide-scale adoption, a balance of alternative fuels and smart policy may help stem the tide of increasing transportation demand.
Earlier this summer the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy released its annual International Energy Efficiency Scorecard which ranks the 23 top energy-consuming countries based on policy and performance across three rubrics: buildings, industry and transportation.
The top scoring countries in transportation, including Italy, Japan and South Korea, benefit from more stringent national fuel economy and efficiency standards. Yet in general, all 23 countries came up shorter in transportation than in the other two indicators.
Indeed, a recent study by a UBC Sustainable Region scholars found that Japan and South Korea exact some of the toughest fuel regimes in the world, with manufacturers and sellers facing fines and even imprisonment for noncompliance. Meanwhile, countries like Italy and the UK benefited from the EU’s mandatory reduction targets, resulting in some of the highest miles per gram CO2 rates.
Canada, for its part, “generally has fewer and less stringent mandatory fuel requirements” and, except for Manitoba, imposes no penalty for noncompliance. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that Canada—although cited as one of just four countries with standards for heavy-duty vehicles—ranks 14 among the 23 countries for transportation efficiency, just below the United States.
While personal vehicle ownership is lower in developing economies, resulting in higher fuel economy, Canada along with the US “is a car-heavy economy,” according to the IEES report, “which means that very little daily travel occurs on more efficient forms of transport.”
Developing countries have the advantage of implementing more progressive policies as personal vehicle ownership rates increase keeping step with their relatively high fuel economy levels. Developed nations in Europe and North America, however, need to adapt their policies to an economy already dependent on personal vehicle ownership.
While new technologies take time for broader implementation, up-to-date fuel regulations will be necessary to fill the gap not only “to keep transportation emissions from growing rapidly,” as DeCicco states, but putting the sector “on a steadily declining trend” in line with the larger energy sector.
By Arman Kazemi, 29 September 2016