More than 190 nations have committed to offsetting emissions from the aviation sector—one of the fastest-growing sources of planet-warming greenhouse gases. But an expert on aviation emissions in British Columbia is skeptical about whether the new United Nations pact will help curb the sector’s soaring share of global carbon emissions.
Passenger and cargo flights generated 781 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2015—roughly two per cent of manmade greenhouse gases. Airline emissions have skyrocketed in recent years due to the growing popularity of budget carriers and expanded air networks in the developing world. Those emissions are expected to triple by 2050 on the current trajectory.
The new agreement, signed last month by the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization, is a non-binding commitment by the aviation industry to spend roughly two per cent of annual revenues on offsetting activities. The industry will use 2020 levels as a baseline with the aim of offsetting 80 per cent of emissions above 2020 levels through 2035. While the agreement is voluntary the United States and China, two of the biggest emitters, have agreed to begin offsetting at the deal’s outset.
Although airline emissions have been growing globally, B.C.’s share of emissions from the sector have declined.
Alex Schare, a University of Northern British Columbia PhD who completed a dissertation on the province’s interurban transportation emissions, says increasingly efficient aircraft are responsible for the drop in the sector’s climate impact.
“Overall, aviation is probably the [emissions category] with the biggest incentive to be as efficient as it can be, simply because fuel is such a big factor for them,” he told Clean Capital.
Schare set out to study how interurban transportation emissions—including aviation—would affect B.C.’s 2020 and 2050 climate goals. In B.C., interurban travel accounts for around 1.5 per cent of human-caused emissions. A 2011 study by Schare found the sector produced an annual 525,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions.
But while the sector is moving more people than ever in B.C., its overall emissions are going down. That’s thanks in part to improvements in technology since 2007, Schare said, including the decision by WestJet and Air Canada to begin using fuel-efficient Dash 8 turboprop planes on B.C. routes.
Schare estimates the new aircraft are 30 to 40 per cent more fuel efficient than previous models.
“Aviation is one of the prime examples, to me, of how going green saves you green—which sounds really cheesy but it’s true,” he said. “You probably shouldn’t say as an environmentalist, but I don’t really care why you reduce your emissions. If you’re doing it to save money, that’s good enough for me. Every litre of fuel you don’t burn is better for the environment too.”
He added that the province’s carbon tax, introduced in 2008, has had a negligible effect on airline emissions.
Schare said the UN pact was better than nothing, but was skeptical of the decision to use offsets—as opposed to emissions caps or other policies to prevent emissions in the first place.
“You’re fixing the effect, you’re not fixing the problem,” he said.
By Jonny Wakefield, 10 November 2016